Who will it be - Uhuru or Ruto

I have always maintained that Hon. William Ruto is the fulcrum upon which Kanu rests. It is for this reason that I have had a problem with the Steadman who conduct polls without looking into significant factors on the ground. For starters let me put it that Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta has no bedrock support his central province due to the fact that he is seen as “hanging out” with “outsiders”. People from central province are not keen to join Hon. Uhuru Kenyatta in Kanu because the same outsiders seem to have occupied all the juicy posts. In other words, if they join the party, they must do so as “rai wa kawaida".

Anyone making a statistical calculation on how Uhuru can win presidential elections must take into account Ruto, whom without he is finished (never mind how much M-1 loves him and rebukes Ruto for having ambition). One cannot therefore claim that Uhuru Kenyatta on his own without Ruto can see the inside of the state house. The same goes for Hon. Kalonza Musyoka, whom without Hon. Raila Odinga cannot become president, given the current political climate. Neither can Raila nor Ruto make it on their own. I guess that when Uhuru was announcing that Kanu will go it alone, he did not imagine that Ruto would challenge him. To him the case was closed. Infact by announcing that, he poured cold water on ODM. And he has right to do so afterall he is the chairman of Kanu. But people like Ruto have seen the support that ODM has and are looking a step further. Kanu to them is just a vehicle for bigger things within ODM. Former president Moi is living in the past, believing that Kanu can be what it used to be i.e the monolithic party which used to stride the country like a colossus. However, the party has an image problem, with a past of corruption, incompetence and nepotism, it would be hard to sell it. So going it alone would certainly spell disaster for Kanu. Besides, these are times of coalition governments. No party will ever again go it alone and win in Kenya.

OBS! As for Steadman, I’m not implying that they should invent the wheel but all I’m saying is that they cannot take statistical tools used in the west and hope to apply them in Kenya without some adjustment suit the local situation. The poll system, which is borrowed from the west is perfectly ok, but not in an African setting more so Kenyan where tribalism is the order of the day.